News

Nicola Sturgeon Speech 05/09/16

Speech: Let’s get on with the job

(By Nicola Sturgeon)

A warm welcome to all of you here today.

As we return to Parliament next week, after a summer in which the work has never really stopped, we have a big job ahead of us.

So to focus minds at the outset, let me remind you of the results of the most recent Scottish Social Attitudes survey.

It examined the extent to which people in Scotland trust the Scottish and UK Governments to act in the country’s best interests.

The findings are telling: trust in the Scottish Government – our SNP government – is at the highest level since devolution began.

In total, 73% of people said that they trust the Scottish Government to act in Scotland’s best interests.

By contrast – sharp contrast – less than 25% said that they trust the UK Government.

And that was before the Tories dragged us to the EU exit door against our will.

These findings should encourage us – but they should also serve as a reminder.

A reminder of the responsibility we carry every single day – in Holyrood, at Westminster and in communities across the country.

The responsibility to earn and re-earn the trust of the people of Scotland.

Our job is to act, at all times, in Scotland’s best interests.

Standing up for Scotland is what our party was born to do. It is in our DNA.

And it will always be our guiding principle.

That’s why at Westminster, it is the SNP that holds the Tory government to account.

It is the SNP that stands up for the vulnerable; the SNP that is the voice of principle against Tory austerity; the SNP that stands against plans to rip up our human rights protections.

And it is the SNP that is leading the charge against the obscenity of wasting £200 billion on a new generation of nuclear weapons.

Make no mistake – at Westminster, we are not just an effective opposition, we are the only effective opposition to the Tory Government.

And at Holyrood we are getting on with the job of creating a wealthier, fairer Scotland.

On Tuesday, I will set out our Programme for Government for the year ahead – a programme based firmly on the manifesto we were so resoundingly re-elected on in May.

It will build on the progress we have already made as a country and focus firmly on the big challenges that confront us.

At its heart will be measures to support our economy through the uncertainty caused by Brexit.

As the UK government dithers, we will outline further plans to stimulate the economy and support jobs.

We will set out the next steps in our plans to improve education and close the achievement gap.

Our school reforms will be centre stage – but they will sit alongside measures to tackle child poverty, expand early years education and build a social security system with fairness and dignity at its heart.

It will also set out how we will continue to equip our NHS for the challenges of the future.

The latest patient experience survey, published earlier this week, shows record levels of satisfaction with our NHS – a real credit to healthcare staff across the country. But as demand continues to rise, we cannot and we will not rest on our laurels.

So as the NHS in England prepares for yet more strikes by junior doctors, our focus will be on expanding primary, community and social care services, building five new elective treatment centres and improving mental health care.

Community empowerment, land reform, new measures to tackle domestic abuse and improve gender balance will also feature in a programme focused firmly on delivering for Scotland.

Of course, this Programme for Government comes against the backdrop of the damaging uncertainty caused by the UK wide vote to leave the EU – the first of two seismic political events that have occurred over this summer.

Ten weeks after accidentally leading the UK to the EU exit door, it really does beggar belief that the Tories are no further forward in setting out the detail of what Brexit actually means.

Instead of a detailed negotiating plan, there is just a meaningless soundbite.

The lack of planning before or since the referendum, the lack of direction, the lack of detail about what our future relationship with the EU might look like, the lack of any semblance of a clue about what happens next is disgraceful.

It is reckless and irresponsible and the Tories – especially their cheerleaders here in Scotland, who told us that staying in the UK was the only way to protect our place in Europe – should be deeply ashamed of themselves.

What makes matters even worse is that the signals that are emerging point firmly in the direction of a deeply damaging hard Brexit.

Any hope of some common sense from Chequers this week turned out to be in vain.

What emerged instead was evidence that the hardline Brexiteers really are running the show.

For Scotland, that means we face the prospect not just of being taken out of the EU against our will – but being taken out of the single market altogether.

If that happens, the damage to our economy will be deep and permanent.

Well, let me clear about this. As First Minister, I am not prepared to stand by and let that happen without a battle.

I’ve already set out the vital Scottish interests that are now under threat – our democratic and economic interests, our interest in social protection and solidarity, and our interest in influencing the world around us.

And I’ve set out why they matter – to jobs, trade and investment, to our universities and our environment, to our security and place in the world and to our very sense of who we are.

My job – our job – is to defend these interests and that is what we are determined to do.

I intend to hold the Prime Minister to her word that Scotland’s voice will be heard.

As the UK government develops its position ahead of triggering article 50, we expect to be at the table and we intend to make our presence felt.

I have appointed Mike Russell to lead these discussions on behalf of the Scottish Government and I know he will be a strong and determined voice for Scotland.

The approach we will take in the months ahead will be threefold.

Firstly, we will seek to use whatever influence we have to shape the best – or more accurately, the least bad – outcome, not just for Scotland, but for the whole UK.

Let me be explicit today about what, in my view, that means. It means the UK continuing as a member of the single market.

My message to the Prime Minister is this – you may have a mandate in England and Wales to leave the EU but you do not have a clear mandate to take any part of the UK out of the single market.

I hope that all parties in Scotland, all those who campaigned to Remain and, indeed, the many Leave campaigners who said that leaving the EU did not mean leaving the single market, will unite behind us when we make this case.

Secondly, and regardless of the direction the UK government decides to take, we will seek to find ways to protect, as best we can, Scotland’s place in Europe and our vital national interests and embed them in the UK’s negotiating strategy.

Our Standing Council of Experts met this week and is already working on a spectrum of options to protect what matters most to Scotland and to consider the additional powers our parliament would need to make them work – for example, how can we protect the benefits to our businesses of the single market and free movement, how can we protect workers’ rights, the place of our universities in Horizon 2020, the continued ability of our students to participate in Erasmus, and the enhanced security that comes from Europol and the European Arrest Warrant.

I am determined that we will pursue these objectives in good faith and as hard as we can.

And to the Prime Minister, I say this. It is your party that has put Scotland into this position. We didn’t choose it – indeed we voted against it. So, if you value the UK as you say you do, the onus is now on you to prove that the UK can work for Scotland and that our interests can be protected.

I hope the Prime Minister keeps her word to listen to Scotland.

But every time I hear high handed, arrogant comments from the Tories to the effect that Scotland should know her place, that Westminster is boss and that we will simply have to like it or lump it, whatever is decided, I know we are right to keep our third option on the table.

That is the option of considering again, in these very different circumstances, if Scotland should become an independent country.

Of course, choosing independence would be a big decision – just as it would have been in 2014. There would be many issues for people to weigh up. I don’t presume that the case has yet been won – though every poll since 23 June has shown support for independence higher than it was on 18 September 2014. And, while I take nothing for granted, I suspect support for independence will be even higher if it becomes clear that it is the best or only way to protect our interests.

The fact that they are already resorting to fear tactics shows that the Tories understand this all too well.

For example, they tell us that Scotland choosing independence would mean turning our back on trade and open borders with the rest of the U.K.

The problem for those making this argument is that we are able to read what they are saying elsewhere.

Just yesterday, David Davis made a speech in Belfast. He said that Brexit would not mean the end of the common travel area with independent Ireland, that it would not lead to a hard border between the north and south of Ireland and that it would not result in barriers to trade.

Instead, he said, and I quote “we will deliver a practical solution that will work in everyone’s interests”.

The UK government cannot say that in Ireland but then get away with saying the opposite here in Scotland. It simply will not wash.

Friends,

There can be no doubt that Brexit raises afresh the issue of independence.

But there are two truths that we must never forget.

First, Scotland will only become independent when a majority of people choose it. There are no shortcuts – we still have to make the case and win the argument.

And, second, important though the issue of EU membership is, the case for independence is about more than that.

Indeed, in many respects, Brexit is simply one illustration – albeit a material one – of the democratic deficit at the heart of the Westminster system.

Whether you voted to Remain in the EU or to Leave, the more fundamental question is “who decides?”

Do we control our own destiny as a country or we will always be at the mercy of decisions taken elsewhere?

That democratic deficit is not new to us.

But it is likely to become more acute as a result of the second seismic event to have occurred this summer – the decision of the Labour Party to press the self destruct button.

Labour is in a state of utter chaos and collapse. It has shown itself completely unable to oppose, let alone govern. The leader that their MPs refuse to unite behind is almost certain to be re-elected.

Not a single serious commentator thinks they can win a general election.

Not even the leader of the Scottish Labour Party thinks they can win a general election.

There is now the very real possibility that we are witnessing the end of Labour as a force to be reckoned with in British politics – perhaps the end of the Labour Party full stop.

And that has real consequences. In their self indulgence, Labour has opened the door to years, perhaps decades, of Tory government. What a disgraceful abdication of responsibility that is.

So, here’s the double whammy that we face in Scotland if things stay as they are.

On the one hand, the uncertainty of Brexit leading to the hard reality of a life outside the single market – with a cost of billions of pounds in lost growth, lost investment, lost opportunities and narrowed horizons.

And on the other hand, years and years of Tory Governments. Governments that are anti European, anti immigration, anti human rights. Governments that will chase economic competitiveness through de-regulation and a race to the bottom. Governments that we don’t vote for.

All of that makes the idea of Westminster as some sort of safe harbour for Scotland completely redundant.

But there is an alternative to just hoping for the best at Westminster.

Yes, it would present its own challenges and complexities.

But it would allow us to take control of our own destiny – to build our own prosperity on strong and stable foundations, create a fairer society, and safeguard our place in the world.

That’s why I believe it is right that our party does now lead a new debate on independence.

Today, I want to set out the principles that will guide that debate.

First, it will be a new debate. It will not be a rerun of 2014.

The UK that Scotland voted to stay part of in 2014 has changed – and so too have the arguments for and against independence. We must not assume that people’s views – yes or no – are the same today as they were in 2014. Instead we must engage the arguments with a fresh eye and an open mind.

And that takes me to the second principle. Before we start talking we must listen.

So today, we are launching – as the first phase in our new independence initiative – the biggest listening exercise in our party’s history. It will run from now until St Andrew’s Day.

We want to understand in detail how people feel now about Europe, Brexit and independence. We want to know the concerns that people have and the questions they want answered. We want to build, if we can, a consensus on the way ahead.

I encourage as many people as possible to take part and let us know their views – whether they are for independence, against independence or undecided.

Members of the public can take part through a new dedicated website going live today -www.survey2016.scot.

Every one of our 120,000 members will be sent a pack of survey cards. I am asking all members today to commit to completing the survey with 5 people each month for the next three months.

Our activists will be hitting the doorsteps as well – asking people to take part and delivering a new leaflet explaining why.

I am also asking all of our parliamentarians to hold at least one town hall event to engage directly with people across your own constituencies.

All in all, we plan to speak to at least 2 million people across Scotland between now and the 30 November, Scotland’s national day.

The wealth of information and insight that we gather will then inform the next stage of our campaign.

The third principle that I commit to today is this one. We will not duck the tough issues.

Last week, the glee of the unionist parties at the publication of the latest GERS figures was as predictable as it was misplaced.

They got very excited that Scotland, like most countries, has a fiscal deficit, while Norway has a surplus of 5%. According to them, this seals the case against independence.

Well, I beg to differ. Norway’s strength is actually a brilliant advert for small, independent countries.

Scotland’s fiscal position is not a verdict on independence – it is an indictment of generations of Westminster government.

But here’s the hard bit. That fact only takes us so far.

If we want to be independent, the legacy of that Westminster mismanagement will be ours to repair.

So we must set out, clearly and convincingly, how we intend to do that.

That’s why I am also announcing today the establishment of a new Party Growth Commission.

The Commission will inform our thinking on how growth can be sustained in the here and now and during the period of uncertainty caused by Brexit.

But it will also examine the projections for Scotland’s finances in the context of independence and consider a policy programme – with social justice at its heart – to grow the economy and reduce Scotland’s deficit to a sustainable level. It will also consider the monetary arrangements that would best support and underpin a strategy for sustainable growth.

The Commission will be chaired by former MSP, Andrew Wilson. It will include our Finance Secretary Derek McKay. Our Westminster Group will be represented by Roger Mullin MP and our Holyrood Group by Kate Forbes MSP.

The full membership of the Commission – which will be published alongside its remit within the next two weeks – will draw on a range of economic, academic and business expertise.

And while its work is intended to inform SNP policy, it will also seek views from across the political spectrum.

Friends,

Scotland is a wealthy country. We have resources and talents that other countries can only dream about.

The real question is why, for so many people, it doesn’t feel that way. Why hasn’t Westminster control of our economy translated the wealth of our country into greater prosperity for our people?

The real challenge for us is to close the gap between our potential and the reality.

And to decide what gives us the strongest foundation and the best opportunity to do so.

I believe we will do better if we stay part of the world’s biggest single market – building prosperity from a stable base – rather than allowing ourselves to be removed from it against our will.

I believe we will be more successful if we keep our economy and our society open to the skills and talents of those who do us the privilege of making Scotland their home.

I believe we will all be better off if we retain our rights to travel, live and study across Europe, learning from other cultures and enriching ourselves in the process.

I believe we will serve our own interests better by contributing positively to the world we live in, rather than by allowing a Tory government – the real separatists – to cut us off.

I believe all of that is in Scotland’s best interests.

So let me end today where I started.

Scotland’s interests will always be our guiding principle.

That means doing everything we can to protect our place in Europe.

It means leading an open, honest and inclusive debate about Scotland’s future.

It means governing for everyone to create opportunity for all.

And it means setting out how we create the best conditions to increase economic opportunity and build economic security.

There is real work to be done.

Let’s get on with the job.

ARTICLE SOURCE: http://www.snp.org/speech_let_s_get_on_with_the_job

Nicola Sturgeon Speech: 02/09/16

Nicola Sturgeon: getting on with the job
By David Livey

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Today Nicola Sturgeon delivered a speech on Scotland’s future, and launched the first phase of the SNP’s new independence initiative.

Here are the key points from the speech.

A firm focus on the big challenges

While the Tories dither in Westminster, the Scottish Government is getting on with the job of good government, with a firm focus on the big challenges ahead.

Next week the Scottish Government will publish the Programme for Government for the year ahead. It will include measures to support the Scottish economy through Brexit uncertainty; tackle the attainment gap, equip our NHS for the challenges of the future, and much more.

Protecting Scotland’s interests in Europe

Nicola Sturgeon made clear the Scottish Government will do all it can to protect Scotland’s relationship with the EU.

As the UK government develops its position ahead of triggering Article 50, the Scottish Government will use its influence to shape the best (or least bad) outcome for Scotland, and the UK as a whole. That means the UK continuing as a member of the Single Market. Find out more about what that means here.

The expert group appointed to advise the Scottish Government on Scotland’s relationship with Europe is working on a range of options to protect what matters most to Scotland, and considering the new powers Scotland would need to make these options work.

The biggest listening exercise in the SNP’s history

Nicola Sturgeon launched the first phase in our new independence initiative – the biggest listening exercise in our party’s history, which will reach out to 2 million people in Scotland before St Andrew’s Day. The information and insight we gather will inform the next stage of our campaign.

Members of the public can take part in The National Survey to give their views on Europe, Brexit, and independence, and set out concerns and questions they have.

The SNP’s 120,000 members have been challenged to engage with five people each month for the next three months. This will take place alongside doorstep activism, and town-hall events throughout the country hosted by SNP parliamentarians.

A new Growth Commission

A new Party Growth Commission will inform thinking on how growth can be sustained in the post-Brexit climate. The Commission will consider a programme to grow Scotland’s economy and reduce the deficit in the context of independence, as well as monetary arrangements.

While its work will inform SNP policy, the group will seek views from across the political spectrum. The full membership of the Commission will be published alongside its remit within the next two weeks, and will draw on a range of economic, academic and business expertise.

Article Source: http://www.snp.org/nicola_sturgeon_s_speech_getting_on_with_the_job

SNP Statement on First 100 Days of New Scot Govt

SNP government: the first 100 days
By Liam Furby
(Article Source http://www.snp.org/snp_scottish_government_100_days)

It has been 100 days since Nicola Sturgeon was sworn in as First Minister following her re-election.

From launching Scotland’s labour market strategy to taking action to secure Scotland’s continued place in Europe, here’s what your re-elected SNP government has done in the last 100 days

Economic Recovery in the EU or Economic Retreat with Brexit

Scotland’s finances: economic recovery in the EU or economic retreat with Brexit
By David Livey

Today the Scottish Government published Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland – or ‘GERS’ for short – for the year 2015-16. GERS is produced annually and provides estimates of total public spending in Scotland, as well as tax receipts for the previous five years.

Here’s what you need to know.

Growth in Scotland’s onshore economy more than offset a decline in offshore revenue.

GERS for 2015-16 shows that Scotland’s onshore economy – excluding North Sea revenues – continues to do well. In the last financial year onshore revenues increased by £1.9 billion. Since 2011-12, onshore tax receipts have grown at about the same rate as the UK as a whole – and are up by almost £6.4 billion.

The publication shows that North Sea revenues in the past year have declined. This is reflective of the challenges that continue to face the global oil industry today, and the fact oil prices are lower than virtually all forecasters – including the UK Government – previously predicted.

These figures don’t take account of the impact of Brexit.

Scotland faces challenges. Brexit has made those challenges harder. Brexit will be deeply damaging to Scotland’s economy and finances. Analysis published by the Scottish Government shows that leaving the EU could reduce Scottish tax revenues by between £1.7 billion and £3.7 billion a year by 2030. For the Scottish economy as a whole, it could cost up to £11.2 billion a year in the long term.

There is now a clear choice between economic recovery with a continued place in Europe – or economic retreat with Brexit.

Find out more about what the Tories aren’t telling you about Brexit here.

While the Scottish Government is taking action to boost Scotland’s economy post-Brexit, the UK government is yet to take any meaningful action.

The Scottish Government is bringing forward an additional £100 million of capital spending to boost the economy post-Brexit. This will be in addition to planned capital spending for 2015-16 and will include spending in health and other key infrastructure sectors. Projects worth almost £6 billion are already under construction as part of the Scottish Government’s Infrastructure Investment Plan.

The UK government, by contrast, has not taken any meaningful action to alleviate uncertainty or boost confidence in our economy since the EU referendum.

We continue to invest more in our public services and economic growth.

In government the SNP is investing in Scotland’s public services. GERS shows that the Scottish Government is investing £130 more per head than the UK Government on health, and £184 more on education. In fact, education spending has been rising while it fell in the rest of the UK.

The SNP Scottish Government is also investing more in growing our economy. Spending on economic development in Scotland is higher than the UK as a whole – to the tune of £76 per head. And, when it comes to capital investment, which accounts for spending on public infrastructure like hospitals and schools, spending is £105 higher per head in Scotland than in the UK as a whole.

The foundations of Scotland’s economy are strong.

Over the last quarter, Scottish employment increased by 51,000 – the largest quarterly rise on record.

Scotland also continues to outperform the rest of the UK on female employment, youth employment and unemployment.

In terms of economic output per head – even excluding oil revenues – Scotland remains the most prosperous part of the UK outside of London and South-east England.

Since 2006, the Ernst & Young Attractiveness Survey ranked Scotland in the top two locations in the UK outside of London for attracting inward investment.

Typical pay in Scotland is, for the first time ever, higher than in England.

GERS tells us about the status quo and very little about the opportunities of independence.

Scotland is rich in human talent and natural resources. But we lack the economic levers to maximise growth in our economy, and invest according to our own priorities. Even after the Smith Commission powers are fully implemented, 71 per cent of taxes raised in Scotland will be controlled in Westminster. And, our ability to grow our population – and our tax base – is limited by the UK Government too.

With independence, the Scottish Government could design policies that are tailored to Scotland’s – not the UK Government’s – circumstances.

Dr Andrew Goudie, former chief economist to the Scottish Government, said in 2003 that GERS “tells us nothing…about the situation under independence.”

ARTICLE SOURCE: http://www.snp.org/scotland_economy_gers_brexit

GERS Figures Published

First Minister: “Choice is between economic recovery or economic retreat.”

Growth in Scotland’s onshore revenues last year has more than offset the downturn in oil revenues, figures published today in Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland 2015-16 (GERS) have shown.

The figures, which do not include the potential impact of Brexit, show that Scotland’s onshore revenues grew by £1.9 billion in the last financial year. However, the lower oil price has reduced offshore tax revenues and this has had a corresponding impact on Scotland’s fiscal position.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said:

“The foundations of our economy remain strong. Scotland, in terms of economic output per head – and even excluding offshore revenues – remains the most prosperous part of the UK outside of London and South-east England.

“And today’s GERS publication shows that our onshore revenues continue to grow, with revenue increasing by £1.9 billion over the year, more than offsetting the decline in offshore revenue.

“This supports increased health spending in Scotland, while education spending has also been rising even while it fell in the rest of the UK.

“And in the latest quarter, Scottish employment increased by 51,000 – the largest quarterly rise on record.

“The lower oil price has, of course, reduced offshore revenues, with a corresponding impact on our fiscal position – this underlines the fact that Scotland’s challenge is to continue to grow our onshore economy.

“However, Scotland’s long-term economic success is now being directly threatened by the likely impact of Brexit.

“Today’s figures come a day after analysis from Scottish Government showed that taking Scotland out of the European Union and our place in the world’s biggest single market would make the task of growing and diversifying the Scottish economy even harder.

“Maintaining our relationship with the EU will help us sustain the economic growth and job creation that we have seen in recent years.

“But if we were to allow Scotland to be forced out of the EU against our democratic will, then we will see Scotland’s economy as a whole take a hit worth up to £11.2 billion pounds per year by 2030.

“It is coming down to a clear choice between economic recovery with a continued place in Europe and the single market – or economic retreat with Brexit.”

Cabinet Secretary for Finance and the Constitution, Derek Mackay, said:

“It is important to note that GERS represents Scotland’s fiscal position under the current constitutional arrangements. The position if Scotland was to become independent would depend on a range of factors which are not reflected in this publication.

“Today’s figures do, however, highlight the challenges facing the oil industry. Muted global demand and a low oil price have clearly had an impact on offshore revenues – not just in Scotland – but we are doing all that we can within our powers to support the industry.

“We have a strong base to build our future progress upon, with the latest labour market figures showing the largest quarterly rise of people in employment on record.

“However, the real risk to Scotland’s economy now is being taken out of the European Union against our will – such an outcome could cost the Scottish economy and public finances many billions of pounds.

“The only way to protect the clear benefits which come from being part of the world’s biggest single market is to work to ensure we protect our relationship with the EU.”

ARTICLE SOURCE: http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/GERS-figures-published-294e.aspx

Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland 2015-16

The publication of Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2015-16 was announced today by Scotland’s Chief Statistician.

Total Public Sector Revenue 2015-16

•Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea, Scottish public sector revenue was estimated as £53.7 billion (7.9 per cent of UK revenue). Of this, £60 million was North Sea revenue.
•Scotland’s illustrative share of North Sea revenue fell from £1.8 billion in 2014-15 to £60 million, reflecting a decline in total UK North Sea revenue.
•Scotland’s public sector revenue is equivalent to £10,000 per person, £400 less than the UK average, regardless of the inclusion of North Sea revenue.

Total Public Sector Expenditure 2015-16

•Total expenditure for the benefit of Scotland by the Scottish Government, UK Government, and all other parts of the public sector was £68.6 billion. This is equivalent to 9.1 per cent of total UK public sector expenditure, and £12,800 per person, which is £1,200 per person greater than the UK average.

Current Budget Balance 2015-16

This is the difference between total revenue and current expenditure (i.e. excluding capital investment). The current budget balance:

•Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £12.7 billion (8.6 per cent of GDP).
•Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £12.6 billion (8.1 per cent of GDP).
•For the UK, was a deficit of £41.5 billion (2.2 per cent of GDP)

Net Fiscal Balance 2015-16

This is the difference between total revenue and total public sector expenditure including capital investment. The net fiscal balance:

•Excluding North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £14.9 billion (10.1 per cent of GDP).
•Including an illustrative geographic share of North Sea revenue, was a deficit of £14.8 billion (9.5 per cent of GDP).
•For the UK, was a deficit of £75.3 billion (4.0 per cent of GDP).

The figures released today were produced in accordance with professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Official Statistics.

ARTICLE SOURCE: http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Government-Expenditure-Revenue-Scotland-2015-16-294c.aspx

Brexit research shows economic risk to Scotland

Analysis highlights economic implications of being outside EU.

Leaving the European Union is projected to cost the Scottish economy up to £11.2 billion per year and Scottish public finances up to £3.7 billion per year.

Analysis published by the Scottish Government today, drawing on research by a range of external organisations, suggests that by 2030, Scottish GDP is projected to be between £1.7 billion and £11.2 billion per year lower than it would have been if Brexit does not occur. Tax revenue is projected to be between £1.7 billion and £3.7 billion lower.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said that the analysis was further evidence of the need to protect Scotland’s relationship with the EU.

Today’s research shows that pursing an option short of full EU membership risks damaging Scottish exports, makes the country a less attractive location for overseas investors and reduces future economic growth and prosperity.

This paper is the first in a series the Scottish Government plans to publish to look at the potential impact on Scotland of the UK leaving the European Union.

The First Minister will hold a press conference later today to discuss the paper in more detail.

Speaking ahead of the event, she said:

“This paper shows, in the starkest possible terms, the potentially huge cost to Scotland of being taken out of the European Union and the single market.

“This analysis – based on a wide range of sources – demonstrates that leaving the EU, under any potential alternative arrangement, will have a profound and long-lasting impact on the public finances and the wider economic and societal wellbeing of both Scotland and the UK as a whole.

“That stark picture outlined today means that, whatever the model of relationship with the EU which is chosen by the UK Government in their negotiations before and after Article 50 is triggered, it will not be as economically beneficial as full EU membership.

“The only way to protect Scotland’s economy – and the clear benefits which come from being part of the world’s biggest single market – is to work to ensure we protect our relationship with the EU.

“My government is absolutely committed to pursuing every possible avenue and option to do that.

“I have already had useful talks with the new Prime Minister, the EU institutions and individual member states in order to pursue that objective, and these are discussions which will continue in the weeks and months ahead.

“It is simply unacceptable that Scotland faces the prospect risk being dragged out of the EU against its will, and today’s paper shows the possibly massive costs that would entail, with all the wider repercussions that would be likely to ensue in terms of jobs, investment and long-term prosperity.”

ARTICLE SOURCE: http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/Brexit-research-shows-economic-risk-to-Scotland-2940.aspx